KIRTLAND AIR FORCE BASE, N.M. -- On January 14, 2026, the Air Force Safety Center announced the Unit Risk Forecasting tool would be available for commanders and unit safety professionals. Unit Risk Forecasting is a machine learning-fueled forecast of squadron risk and the factors influencing increased risk.
The Unit Risk Forecasting tool utilizes over a decade of historical safety data, unit personnel data, predictive capabilities, and mitigation strategies developed by safety professionals to give commanders and decision makers a visual toolkit to minimize risk at the unit level.
Each squadron’s mishap history and unit demographic information will be used to train the forecasting model. Once the machine learns patterns in the data, those patterns are recorded in a model that takes in squadron information and outputs a risk forecast. Every month, new information is fed into the model and the resulting risk forecast is displayed in a Command Summary Page.
While the Unit Risk Forecasting tool is not a mishap predictor, it is a way to quantify a unit’s risk level and assist commanders and safety staff with risk mitigation strategies. By reducing mishaps, combat power and lethality are increased.
“This tool will help increase combat readiness by reducing mishaps and giving decision makers access to information about mishaps, current and future risk profiles, and top factors driving risk for targeted and efficient risk reduction,” said Laura Pick, chief of Analytics and chief Injury Epidemiologist. “This is part of a suite of proactive, predictive tools the Department of the Air Force is driving toward to empower commanders’ decisions with data-driven information.”
Commanders and safety personnel will have the ability to filter through several variables in the Command Summary Page and see how each variable either drives risk up or down. This gives commanders data to support advocating for scheduling, manning, funding, and other resources or changes.
Each risk driver correlates to a series of mitigation suggestions. Mitigation strategies were developed by AFSEC Safety experts. The strategy provides a description of what each variable indicates, followed by a series of mitigations a commander or safety professional could address to reduce elevated risk.
“Our intent is to develop analytical tools to assist commanders with proactive risk reduction, mishap prevention, and maximized readiness,” said Pick. “Giving them actionable data to stay one step ahead of potential challenges and risks in their organizations.”
DAF Safety is committed to employing emerging and innovative technology tools to provide predictive, and eventually prescriptive, analytical products to drive risk-informed decisions to operational commands across the DAF.
"Unit Risk Forecasting allows DAF Safety to be at the cutting edge of operating in a dynamic, data-driven environment,” said Brig. Gen. Otis Jones, DAF Chief of Safety. “By allowing commanders, safety personnel, and decision-makers to see their unit’s risk level at a glance, their unit’s top risk drivers, and targeted mitigation recommendations, we are enabling leaders to make risk-informed decisions that will safeguard Airmen and Guardians without sacrificing mission success.”
For more information on the Unit Risk Forecasting tool visit our page here.